Like the number of teams still alive in the MLB playoffs, used-car prices are dropping in October.

Wholesale vehicle values climbed sequentially for the second straight month and were still astronomically high in September compared to pre-COVID levels, but signs indicate that October is seeing the usual autumn slowdown.

That’s according to the September/October Kontos Kommentary released Tuesday by ADESA chief economist Tom Kontos.

Average wholesale prices were at $15,171 in September, which beat August figures by 1.7% and trailed year-ago figures by 2.7%, according to the Kontos report.

Compared to the pre-pandemic reading in September 2019, prices were up 36.6%.

However, at October’s midpoint, prices dropped to an average of $14,552, as they “seem to be reflecting their typical seasonal decline as the holidays approach despite the UAW strike,” Kontos said in the report.

Late-model vehicles, which ADESA defines as fleet/lease sales of 3-year-old vehicles with mileages between 36,000 and 45,000, had average wholesale prices of $25,176 in September, up from $25,095 in August. However, those have dropped to $23,793 (as of the week ending Oct. 15).

In a similar analysis, Cox Automotive reported earlier this month that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for the first half of October came in at 211.0, a 1.6% drop from September and a 3.3% decline compared to the full month of October 2022.

Segment trends

The Kontos report indicates that car segment prices climbed 2.7% month-over-month in September, while dropping 5.2% year-over-year.

Trucks, meanwhile, were up 0.7% from August while falling 3.9% from September 2022.

Looking at the mid-month reading of the Manheim index, pickups are the only segment in Cox’s analysis to show year-over-year growth, climbing 0.4%. Compact car pieces as of mid-October were down 9.3% year-over-year, with luxury vehicles dropping 6.3% and midsize cars softening 5.9%. SUV/CUV prices are down 2.9% at October’s halfway point, and vans have dropped 4.5%.