Lane watch: 2023 closes with ‘normal’ depreciation reading
After a late fall juncture that generated multiple instances of vehicle segments dropping in value by 3% or more in a single week, Black Book watched the wholesale market finish 2023 with what analysts classified as “normal.”
Black Book reported on Wednesday that wholesale values declined 0.68% during the week that stretched to the next-to-last day of 2023. It was a reading near the pre-COVID average weekly depreciation for the same week in 2017 through 2019, which was 0.57%.
“With depreciation finally returning to a level that resembled ‘normal,’” Black Book pointed out the estimated average weekly sales rate decreased to 48% during the last week of the year.
“As we close out 2023, the last quarter of the year looked a lot different than the first three,” analysts continued in their first installment of Market Insights for 2024. “We saw a depreciation we haven’t seen in years, huge declines in all reporting segments in the fourth quarter.
“It will be very interesting to see how 2024 starts off as we enter the first week of the new year. Auction inventory should be high with the lower conversion rates we saw in the last two weeks of 2023,” Black Book went on to say in the report.
Drilling deeper into the newest data, Black Book indicated overall car segment decreased 0.39% on a volume-weighted basis. A week earlier, car values softened by 0.51%.
Looking at cars by age, perhaps more of that “normal” movement appeared, as analysts said values for cars up to 2 years old dropped by 0.42% while prices for cars 8 to 16 years old declined 0.51%.
Prices for all nine car segments decreased last week, with the near luxury car segment leading the way with a drop of 0.88%.
Analysts mentioned prices for compact cars ticked only 0.07% lower, the smallest single week depreciation reading for the segment since the first week of October.
Black Book added that sporty car depreciation also “dramatically” slowed down last week, as prices for those units dipped just 0.10%. That’s compared with the average weekly depreciation during the previous six weeks of 2.02% per week.
Looking at the truck department, Black Book reported truck values decreased 0.80% on a volume-weighted basis to close the last week 2023. That value drop almost mimicked what analysts saw a week earlier when it was 0.78%.
And no matter the truck’s age, values dropped at nearly the same rate. Black Book noticed units up to 2 years old softened by 0.73% on average, while 8- to 16-year-old trucks decreased by 0.74% on average.
Analysts added prices for all 13 truck segments declined last week, with only four posting value drops exceeding 1%.
Black Book said small pickups had the largest decline last week with a drop of 1.91%, noting this was the largest single week decline for the segment since May 2020.
After large declines for six weeks, averaging 2.23% each week, analysts closed by noting depreciation for the full-size luxury crossover/SUV segment slowed down last week, with a “minimal” drop of 0.37%.