Same goes for the used-car market, it seems.

Despite a slowdown from the prior month and the heights reached in the summer, used-car sales in December capped what ended up being a pretty solid year, according to Cox Automotive.

One where expectations for used-car sales were exceeded, the company said in an analysis Tuesday. Considering the volatility over the past four years, that’s a “W” on the win-loss record.

“Overall, December used sales were a little soft when we think about the sales momentum we had since the summer, including lower prices all year,” Cox Automotive senior manager of economic and industry insights Chris Frey said in the report.

“Regardless of the December figures, we have to cheer the way the year ended, with the SAAR up from November and finishing above our full year January 2023 SAAR forecast,” Frey said.

Here’s the stat sheet.

There were an estimated 2.6 million overall used vehicles sold in December, Cox estimated, citing vehicle registration data.

That beat prior-year figures by 2.1%.

Looking at what Cox considers used retail sales (vehicles sold by dealers), there were close to 1.4 million sales in December, a 2.6% year-over-year increase.

Both overall and retail numbers, however, were down month-over-month. In fact, used-car sales (overall and retail) fell sequentially in both November and December.

Still, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for overall used-car sales came in at estimated 37.0 million in December, up from 35.6 million in November and 35.2 million in December 2022, according to the Cox data set.

The retail used-car SAAR was an estimated 19.6 million in December, compared to 18.9 million in November and 18.6 million a year earlier.

For full-year 2023, there were nearly 35.9 million overall used-car sales, Cox estimated. While that’s down from 36.3 million in 2022, it would beat the initial forecast for used sales. Cox estimates that there were 19.0 million retail used-car sales in 2023.

Looking ahead, the company anticipates 36.2 million overall used-car sales in 2024 and 19.2 million used retail sales. Both would be improvements from 2023, despite lingering supply challenges.

“The used-vehicle market is expected to regain some normalcy and balance in 2024,” Frey said. “However, the effects of lower new-vehicle sales in 2021 and 2022 are anticipated to keep the used supply constrained.”

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According to the 2024 Embedded Auto Insurance Study, conducted by embedded automotive insurance marketplace Polly, Millennials and Generation Z consumers don’t want to just shop for insurance — they want insurance to be part of the car-buying process.

The survey of more than 1,000 consumers who had purchased a car in the previous 12 months, which Polly said focused on buyers 45 and younger, found 79% of the Millennial and Gen Z respondents said they believe it makes sense for insurance to be a part of the vehicle buying process and 81% said they want the option to purchase auto insurance while buying a vehicle at the dealership.

That compares to 63% and 60% among all consumers surveyed.

In addition, 82% of younger car buyers said being able to compare multiple quotes and buy auto insurance in their smartphones at the dealership would improve their car-buying experience.

“Our embedded auto insurance study reveals that Millennials and Gen Z aren’t just looking for vehicles,” Polly chief marketing officer Mike Burgiss said. “They’re seeking a holistic buying experience that includes insurance. The research is clear — consumer demand for integrated solutions is not a passing trend. It’s a new norm.”

The company said young buyers prefer a seamless car shopping experience that includes insurance, and that growing consumer preference for integrated insurance gives dealerships an opportunity to “unlock new revenue streams while enhancing the customer experience as they become a one-stop-shop for today’s modern car buyers.”

According to the Polly survey, Millennial and Gen Z car buyers said a dealership introducing them to an insurance shopping app that saved them money would make them more than 70% more likely to refer friends and family to that dealership, return to the dealership for repairs and maintenance, and feel better about making their next purchase from that dealership. And 68% said they would give the dealer a higher satisfaction rating.

You can download the full study here.

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Auto Remarketing spoke with Doug Betts, president of the automotive division of J.D. Power, who has been in that position nearly seven years, for a preview of the event.

The J.D. Power Auto Summit began as a dealer roundtable in San Francisco in 1985, and was hosted just before the NADA convention. Over the past three decades, the event has evolved into the popular destination for NADA attendees that it is today.

“It’s convenient to have the event just ahead of NADA, because all the different brands and OEMs are having their meetings with their dealer networks and talking about the future and products that are coming and things like that,” said Betts.

The dealers are in town, and they are looking for information to ramp up their business.

Back in the 1980s, Betts said J.D. Power was known mostly as a research and benchmarking business.

“I would say since then, that’s just a small part of our business now,” said Betts. “Now, we’re mostly what’s called a data and analytics company.”

For the auto industry, this means data like sales numbers, transaction prices, vehicle valuations, vehicle specifications and more.

For instance, “what (vehicle) configurations are sold and how, how fast do they sell and how much profit they sell for,” said Betts. “So, we really have a lot of information about which version of the vehicle is the right version for a certain location, or in a certain part of town, or in a certain city.

“We’ve got just tons of data that can be very helpful for both the auto industry, the OEMs themselves and for the dealers who are ordering cars and selling their cars,” he said.

This data translates well into sessions at the J.D. Power Auto Summit that are impactful to businesses across the auto industry.

OEM topics on tap

During the Summit, a variety of top trends in the industry are explored through different sessions. Every year, the Summit takes an in-depth look at specific OEMs going through changes or disruptions in the industry.

Stellantis’ Dodge brand has been in the hot seat lately as dealers and consumers look to OEM leadership to further modernize the brand.

During the OEM Exclusive session focusing on Stellantis, Matt McAlear, senior vice president of Dodge/SRT sales and marketing, will speak to the company’s ongoing evolution and redirection.

Betts said the OEM needs to make a transition, and a pretty dramatic one at that.

“Dodge’s place in the market right now is about big, supercharged V8 engines, and maximum horsepower. And we know as sustainable transportation becomes more important, those vehicles’ path is coming to an end,” said Betts. “So, how are they (Dodge) going to transition?”

Betts sees this session as a great chance for dealers and industry professionals to hear more about Dodge’s plan for the next five years. The OEM has recently announced some products that are electrified, but Betts said the brand still holds to the aforementioned outdated positioning.

“We expect it’s a good chance for him (Stellantis representative) to talk to 700 or 800 representatives of dealers … and a lot of these attendees are representing huge dealer groups, not just individual rooftops.”

In other OEM offerings, the summit will also host Mark Reuss, president of General Motors, on site, for a second OEM Exclusive session during the second half of the Summit. Reuss will speak on GM’s transformation following the auto industry’s “seismic” shift to electric, connected and autonomous vehicles.

What does EV data tell us?

For those interested in driving electric vehicle retail share, a panel at the Summit will explore information stemming from the data set J.D. Power calls its EV Index.

“We’ve merged together 26 different data sets all related to EVs or the comparison between internal combustion and EVs,” said Betts, and this session will pull trends and strategies stemming from this data and more.

“We are basically measuring all of the roadblocks to EV adoption; those things that keep a consumer from switching to an EV, like infrastructure or affordability,” Betts said. “And we’re measuring all those very precisely in a very granular way — all the way down to ZIP-code.”

If you’re a dealer and you’re trying to overcome obstacles to selling EVs, this session is for you, said Betts.

The EV panel at the J.D. Power Summit includes reps from J.D. Power, the government, NADA and more.

Big-picture franchise view

One of the most popular sessions Betts said is the annual Franchise Assessment. This session provides a full-picture view of how each auto brand in the U.S. is performing across consumer ratings, customer loyalty, residual values and EV brand strategy and more.

Betts said the assessment is typically the most popular session for dealers.

“Dealers have a franchise that they represent, and maybe they want to grow and buy another store that is a different brand,” said Betts. “In this segment, we use all of our data, and we walk through every brand that’s out there and talk about the strengths and weaknesses of the brand. We look at our transaction data and talk about the margins. We can see the margin that dealers who sell one brand are making versus another brand.”

During the assessment, speakers will discuss each brand’s progress and plans to transition to EVs, as well.

“If you’re a dealer and you’re investing in a particular brand, if that brand doesn’t do a good job of making this EV transition, you could be left in the dust,” said Betts.

This is an example of a session that Betts said brings all of the J.D. Power data to a topic “that is very interesting for dealers and is a staple of the event.”

Not just a celebrity, but a ‘car guy’

Talk-show host and media personality Jay Leno will also be featured at the Summit the evening of the event. Leno is a self-professed car guy, bringing not only a big name, but also many years of following the auto industry.

“We went through this dark period where everybody said, ‘Oh, you know, kids these days only want to play video games, and they don’t even get their driver’s license. They don’t care about driving,’” said Betts.

Although that may have been the narrative six or seven years ago, Betts contends “it’s over.”

“Celebrity personalities like Jay have brought the next generations into appreciating all the history of the automotive industry, as well as new technology,” said Betts. “It’s really healthy for the industry to have the new generation going to sleep at night dreaming about their first car.”

Why arrive a day early?

Bottom line? Time is money, and any extra time out of the office can impact the dealership. So why should NADA attendees come to Las Vegas a day early?

“It’s a good way to get an overall view of the progress of the industry,” said Betts. “We look at the whole previous year and how it unfolded, as well as the rate of sales and final conclusions for 2023.”

Attendees will be able to see a brand-by-brand view of “who were the winners and losers during 2023,” Betts said.

Further, the team at J.D. Power aims to forecast trends for 2024, “and we have a really good track record of being accurate on that,” said Betts.

Armed with this information, NADA attendees can go into the event with information to plan their conference out as productively as possible.

“After listening to our sessions, if they think they’re going to need better software, or they’re going to need to buy some equipment to sell EVs or whatever it is, they are now really well educated to go out and make some decisions at NADA,” said Betts.

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Just like in 2022 and 2021.

The Model 3 continued its dominance over the sector in the online used-car retailer’s annual list of its 10 best-selling EVs. And, like last year, it was followed by the Nissan LEAF, Tesla Model Y and BMW i3, though in 2023 the Model Y moved from fourth to third, surpassing the BMW.

The rest of the list includes the Chevrolet Volt, Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X, Ford Mustang MACH-E, Volkswagen e-Golf and Chevrolet Bolt EV.

Carvana said it sold 57 makes and models of EVs last year, 29% more than in 2022.

“We are dedicated to building an inventory that reflects our customers’ tastes and preferences, and that includes increasing our selection of electric vehicles as more models come to market and more consumers choose to buy cars in this category,” Carvana senior vice president of inventory Brian Boyd said in a news relase.

“We are focused on building selection across all price points to make used EVs as accessible as possible to all interested customers.”

The Model 3 is by far the top-selling used EV in the nation, according to data from iSeeCars. In its recent Most Popular Used Cars in 2023 study, the automotive research firm found the Model 3 accounted for a staggering 34.9% of all used EV sales last year, almost triple the market share of the second-place Model Y.

That said, the gap is narrowing. The Model 3’s market share is down from 40% in 2022, while the Model Y’s rose from 10.3% to 11.9%.

Tesla’s hold as a brand on the EV market is slipping a bit, too, as the Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF both jumped past Tesla’s Model S and Model X into third and fourth in sales. The market share of those Tesla models plummeted from 9.8% and 7.7% to 5.6% and 5.5%.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E, Audi e-tron, Porsche Taycan and Volkswagen ID.4 rounded out the iSeeCars top 10 sellers.

“Most of the top-ranking electric cars are showing their age, with only the Model Y being relatively new to the market,” iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said in the report. “And in this race of older EVs, the aging Bolt and LEAF pulled ahead of the aging Model S and Model X.

“Without major updates to Tesla’s most expensive vehicles they are likely to continue dropping in popularity.”

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Traditionally, this process has been akin to navigating a complex river system, where vehicles exiting leases or rental periods are channeled towards different fates based on their condition. However, a closer examination reveals that this system, often reliant on manual inspections and conventional sales channels, harbors inefficiencies that can significantly impact the bottom line.

This article delves into the nuances of remarketing triaging, exploring how technological advancements are streamlining this process, offering significant benefits to fleets, consumers, and the broader automotive industry.

The Remarketing ‘River’: Understanding the Flow

The remarketing process for fleets is a multifaceted one, where vehicles, upon completion of their leasing or rental cycle, enter a complex network of decisions and pathways. Traditionally, these vehicles are categorized broadly into three streams:

1. Those ready for immediate retail

2. Those needing minor refurbishments, and

3. Those best suited for wholesale or auction due to extensive damage or modifications.

However, a critical issue arises in the traditional approach to this triaging. Many fleets, constrained by legacy systems and processes, often treat these distinct categories similarly, directing them through a one-size-fits-all pipeline of manual inspections and standard remarketing channels.

This approach not only increases the time and resources spent on each vehicle but also often leads to suboptimal outcomes in terms of the vehicle’s sales channel and eventual price.

It’s about extracting maximum value per asset, as opposed to treating all assets in the same way.

The Limitations of Manual Inspections

Manual inspections, while thorough, come with their set of challenges. They are usually done too late in the sales process, are time-consuming, often requiring specialized staff and resources, and are subject to human error.

Additionally, the delay between inspection and sale can lead to a depreciation in the vehicle’s value, further eroding profit margins.

Moreover, the conventional channels of retail or auction, while effective for certain vehicle categories, may not always represent the best route for every vehicle.

This lack of differentiation in the sales approach can result in missed opportunities for maximizing returns.

Enter Smart Inspection Technologies

Addressing these challenges, a wave of technological innovation is sweeping across the fleet remarketing landscape. Central to this transformation is the advent of smart inspection technologies.

These systems, powered by advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, offer a more nuanced and efficient approach to vehicle assessment.

Moreover, there is much value in triaging the vehicle into the right ‘track’ well before the dealer receives the vehicle via a pre-return self-inspection performed by the customer.

This optimizes their condition-adjusted market value, and saves the time and cost of transportation. AI-enabled car inspection technology is reshaping how fleets manage their remarketing process.

Solutions that allow for rapid, accurate assessments of a vehicle’s condition, which can be conducted by consumers or staff with minimal training. This not only speeds up the inspection process but also provides a level of detail and accuracy that manual inspections struggle to match.

The Benefits of Consumer-Driven Inspections

An intriguing aspect of these smart inspection systems is their ability to involve the consumer in the inspection process. By empowering consumers to conduct pre-term inspections, these technologies provide several advantages.

Firstly, they offer consumers a transparent view of potential charges, allowing them to address issues preemptively, often through authorized dealers. This not only enhances the consumer experience but also ensures that vehicles are returned in better condition, reducing the need for extensive refurbishments.

From a fleet perspective, this consumer engagement represents a valuable touchpoint. It provides an opportunity to foster customer loyalty and trust, a crucial element in an industry where long-term relationships are key.

Real-World Impact: Case Studies from Leading Used Car Buyers

The theoretical advantages of smart inspection technologies are compelling, but their real-world impact is even more so. Leading used car buyers in the US have adopted AI car inspection solutions in assessing potential trades and triaging them to the right funnel.

One remarketing group in New York that was embarking on increasing their car purchasing efforts has implemented remote vehicle assessment technology into their purchasing & trading decisions.

By sending the seller, an individual consumer, a link to a self-inspection, the company receives over 200 images on average, arranged into a condition assessment. Combined with real market data on the vehicle value, the company can make fast decisions whether the vehicle is retail-ready, if any repairs are required, or should it be sent to auction as a wholesale unit.

By gradually automating that process, the company can correctly bid on the vehicle, optimizing margins and saving costs on professional in-house assessments, estimated at over $150,000 per year.

Streamlining the Remarketing Process

The integration of smart inspection technologies into the remarketing process represents a paradigm shift. By accurately categorizing vehicles at an early stage, fleets can direct them down the most appropriate sales channels, whether that be direct retail, minor refurbishment followed by retail, or wholesale/auction.

This targeted approach not only optimizes the revenue potential for each vehicle but also streamlines the entire remarketing process, reducing overheads and increasing operational efficiency.

Optimizing for Efficiency and Value: A New Era in Fleet Remarketing

The integration of smart inspection technologies represents more than just an operational upgrade; it heralds a new era in fleet remarketing, marked by efficiency, precision, and enhanced value.

This second half of the article explores the broader implications of this technological shift, addressing the challenges and forecasting future trends in the fleet industry.

The Impact on Sales Channels and Market Dynamics

The traditional dichotomy between retail and auction in the fleet remarketing process is being challenged by the nuanced categorization enabled by smart inspections. By accurately assessing each vehicle’s condition, fleets can make more informed decisions about the most profitable and suitable sales channels.

This approach ensures that vehicles which can command a higher price on the retail market are not hastily sent to auction, where they might fetch a lower return.

Moreover, the detailed condition reports generated by these technologies provide fleets with a powerful negotiating tool, both in retail and wholesale markets. The transparency offered by these reports can enhance trust and confidence among buyers, potentially leading to better prices and quicker sales.

Addressing the Challenges: Implementation and Adaptation

Despite the apparent benefits, the implementation of smart inspection technologies is not without its challenges. The initial investment in technology and training can be substantial.

Moreover, there is often a period of adjustment as staff adapt to new systems and processes.

However, the long-term benefits — in terms of cost savings, operational efficiency, and enhanced revenue potential — far outweigh these initial hurdles.

Furthermore, data security and privacy concerns, especially given the increasing reliance on cloud-based solutions, must be meticulously addressed. Ensuring the integrity and security of vehicle data is paramount, not just for regulatory compliance but also for maintaining consumer trust.

The Future of Fleet Remarketing: Trends and Predictions

Looking forward, the integration of smart inspection technologies in fleet remarketing is likely to set off a series of transformative trends in the industry:

1. Greater data utilization: The wealth of data generated by smart inspections will enable fleets to make more informed decisions, not just about remarketing but across their entire operational spectrum.

2. Increased consumer engagement: The role of the consumer in the inspection process is poised to grow, enhancing transparency and trust, and potentially opening up new avenues for customer loyalty programs.

3. Expansion of online sales channels: With detailed, accurate condition reports, the feasibility and attractiveness of online sales channels for fleet vehicles will increase, potentially reshaping the retail landscape.

4. Regulatory evolution: As technology plays a bigger role in remarketing, regulatory frameworks may evolve to ensure fair practices and data security, further standardizing the industry.

Conclusion: Embracing a Technology-Driven Future

The fleet remarketing industry stands at the cusp of a significant transformation, driven by technological innovation and changing market dynamics. Smart inspection technologies are not just streamlining the remarketing process; they are redefining it, creating a more efficient,
transparent, and profitable ecosystem.

For fleets, embracing this change is not just an option; it is imperative to remain competitive and relevant in a rapidly evolving market.

In conclusion, as the industry navigates this transition, those who adeptly integrate and leverage these technologies will emerge as leaders, setting new standards in efficiency, customer satisfaction, and overall market agility. The future of fleet remarketing is undeniably technology-driven, promising a landscape where precision, transparency, and value reign supreme.

Eliron Ekstein is the co-founder & CEO of Ravin AI 

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That’s according to separate analyses released Monday by Cox Automotive and Black Book.

Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 7.0% year-over-year in December and dropped 0.5% month-over-month, coming in at 204.0.

Wholesale prices were up close to 33% from December 2019, Cox said, but have slowed 21% since the December 2021 peak.

“We ended 2023 with about half of the used-vehicle value decline we saw in 2022, but still more than we’d see in a typical year,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a news release.

Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index closed the year by dropping 10.9% year-over-year in December and falling 1.7% from November, coming in at 151.0.

Still, the index is up 32% from last pre-pandemic reading in March 2020.

“Wholesale prices continued to decline in December at a higher than usual (pre-2020) rate, but the depreciation was slower than in November,” Black Book chief data science officer Alex Yurchenko said in a release. “We saw a drop in the conversion rates at the auctions, which is typical this time of the year.

Looking forward, Black Book said January should see auction activity increase with dealers acquiring inventory for the spring market.

“As OEMs push more incentives to move new inventory, used wholesale prices are expected to decline in January although not as rapidly as in the last quarter of 2023,” Yurchenko said.

Looking forward, Cox is projecting its Manheim index will have increased 0.5% year-over-year in December of this year. It anticipates “muted fluctuations” in used-vehicle values and less volatility, given the recovery in wholesale volumes  in the last year. Both wholesale and retail markets have moved “more toward equilibrium,” the company said.

“For 2024, the key word for the wholesale market is ‘normalcy.’ Manheim expects constrained growth with a volume increase of less than 1%,” Smoke said. “As for price patterns, we anticipate a normalization trend, and we expect that 2024 will be the first year in five where we will experience fairly normal depreciation in the wholesale market.”

Added Cox Automotive senior director of economic and industry insights Jeremy Robb: “As we move into 2024, it’s important to note that used-vehicle values increased faster than the overall rate of inflation.

“So, even though prices have come down over the last two years, they are still about 33% higher than at the end of 2019,” Robb said. “More normal declines will likely be seen in the coming years, but the average value of a wholesale unit will continue to be higher than in the past.”

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The company’s Q1 Used EV Market Report found the average listing price of a 2017-2019 Tesla Model 3 has dropped below $30,000. That’s an important milestone because it puts them in play for the federal used EV tax credit of up to $4,000, since the actual purchase price is often less than the listing price.

The report noted the Model 3 offers significantly greater battery range than other EVs currently qualifying for the tax credit and said some 300,000 Models 3s were sold in the U.S. from 2017 to 2019.

As a result of the rise in longer-range models and EVs eligible for the tax rebate, Recurrent’s report forecast a sharp increase in used EV sales in 2024, predicting that by the end of the year a used EV will be sold every minute on average, with sales reaching 558,982 units.

That would be a jump of 42% over 2023 and up 97% from 2022.

“Our market indicators suggest that we are at the start of an inflection point for used electric cars in the U.S.,” Recurrent CEO Scott Case said in the report. “Shoppers no longer need to choose between range and affordability. A used EV shopper can drive home in a Tesla for less than $25,000.”

Another factor in that equation is the readiness of dealers to sell used EVs.

Beginning this year, dealerships must register with the Treasury Department to offer the $4,000 point-of-sale discounts on used EVs. But the Recurrent report found that while more than 7,000 dealerships have registered, just 7% of the 200 dealerships surveyed last month said they had taken steps to participate.

“As a used EV shopper, you definitely want to get this $4000 discount, but the rules aren’t straightforward,” Case said, adding shoppers need to know “which dealers, which vehicles and which buyers qualify.”

The full report is available here. Recurrent has also released a guide to the EV tax credits as well as a list of registered dealerships.

$16 million Series A funding round completed

In other news from the company, Recurrent announced it has completed its $16 million oversubscribed Series A funding round to scale out its used EV battery reports.

The funding round was led by ArcTern Ventures, with additional investment from Automotive Ventures, Goodyear Ventures, Wireframe Ventures, Pioneer Square Labs and others.

“Used EV value is unequivocally driven by a vehicle’s range and battery,” ArcTern Ventures partner Ian Pinnington said. “ArcTern conducted extensive primary research to develop the high conviction that Recurrent’s data-driven solution is not only the right approach, but is in a standalone market-leading position.

“As Recurrent continues to become a standard in the used EV ecosystem, we believe the company will inform all used EV transactions.”

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The data and analytics firm’s 2023 Automotive Brand Loyalty Study found just 21% of used-vehicle owners who bought their next vehicle used went on to repurchase the same brand again, which is actually a 1% increase from the previous year.

Used-vehicle owners who bought new vehicles were more loyal, but not by much, staying with the same brand 26% of the time.

In contrast, 51.3% of new-car owners bought the same brand for their next new-car purchase, up from 49.7% in 2022, led by Tesla’s 60.7% loyalty rate, up from 59.0%.

LexisNexis analyzed vehicles and owners that make up a garage, using 107 million U.S. garages to calculate automotive brand loyalty from January through December 2023.

The study found about 62% of new-vehicle purchases in 2023 included a trade-in, while 26% added a vehicle to a garage and 11% of new-vehicle purchases were made by owners who did not have a vehicle in the garage — which includes first-time buyers and those who had gone an extended period without a vehicle.

“Automakers can further build brand loyalty by connecting with used-car owners and offering services to them as if they were the original owners,” said Dave Nemtuda, LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ head of OEM products, U.S. connected car. “That connection could be the shift that automakers need to see an uptick in brand loyalty and customer engagement with their brand on many levels.”

More about the study is available here.

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